Applications of Gender and Development: An Econometric Analysis of Women’s Autonomy and Fertility Behavior

Do women have children in order to gain social and economic security? Do they have children to appease their husbands or partners? Women are often expected to provide caring labor, manage the household, bear children and raise children. Many women want to perform these tasks, but some may also feel compelled by financial necessity or the expectations of others. If so, then the social status of women may determine their fertility behavior. Fertility behavior is important because it affects poverty, population growth and the spread of disease. Economic theory suggests that poverty may be propagated through the generations by high fertility (Iyigun 2000). The United Nations Population Fund projects that, depending on the fertility behavior of people currently coming into their childbearing years, global population will either stabilize at 9 billion by 2050, or climb to 11 billion by the same year and continue rising (UNFPA 1998). UNAIDS estimates that over 5 million people contracted HIV/AIDS in the year 2000 (UNAIDS 2000). Policy-makers must understand how and why individuals make choices about fertility and sex in order to efficiently respond to the spread of AIDS, population trends, and poverty. This paper seeks to clarify the relationship between women's autonomy and fertility by first reviewing economic theories of the household and previous empirical work. Second, a conceptual model is constructed, which is then used to generate an actual model. Third, probit regressions are used on World Bank data from South Africa and Peru. Finally, the regression results are discussed with reference to policy and research implications.